Notes on the Week Ahead
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Notes on the Week Ahead
Listen to the latest insights from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to help prepare you for the week ahead.
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317 ክፍሎች
Going Broke Slowly: The Investment Implications of Still-Rising Federal Debt
One of the more challenging positions in football is that of place kicker for the visiting team. In theory, the job is simple – boot the ball through...
The Investment Implications of the Government Shutdown
As we enter the second week of the government shutdown, markets appear unconcerned. Last week, the S&P500 rose to an all-time record high, 10-year Tre...
Checking the Foundations of a Roaring Bull Market
As I get older, my memory gets a little foggier. That being said, I believe it was at lunch at a restaurant near our office on Friday, March 6th, 2009...
Truth or Consequences: The Fed’s Next Move
When engaged in the dark arts of foretelling the Fed’s words and actions, I have always adopted what might be called the “prudent economist rule”. Wha...
Rate Rescue Reality Check
Stocks rallied in the immediate aftermath of Friday’s dismal jobs report, with the S&P500 jumping 0.5% to an all-time high of 6,532 when the market op...
Back from the Beach: Reviewing the Investment Landscape
American summers, much more so than in the rest of the world, are defined by two bookends: Memorial Day and Labor Day. As a result, the first week in...
The Investment Implications of the Refund Surge
On August 7th, with little fanfare, the IRS announced that, as part of its phased implementation of the OBBBA, it would not be adjusting W2 or 1099 fo...
Why Money Doesn’t Talk Any More
One of the great challenges of modern life is avoiding distractions.
In our daily lives, we are flooded by breaking news, music on planes, ads i...
The Inflation Outlook
The inflation temperature is about to rise. It should be a low-grade fever, triggered by tariff impacts but mitigated by low energy prices, declines i...
The Investment Implications of Weaker Labor Supply
This is a particularly challenging time to try to develop and present a balanced view of the economic outlook and its implications for investors. This...
The Fed Decisions
For investors, the week ahead will be dominated by the Fed decisions.
Possibly, some AI chatbot will spot the obvious grammatical error in that...
Underreacting and then Overreacting to Policy Shocks
As you make your way through Terminal 5 in Heathrow airport, there are plenty of opportunities to buy a T-shirt bearing the slogan “Keep Calm and Carr...
The Investment Implications of a Falling Dollar
Despite very significant shifts in U.S. economic policy and major geopolitical events, investors can look back at the first half of 2025 with some sat...
OBBBA and a Cold, Hot, Cold Forecast
On Tuesday, we will release our third quarter 2025 Guide to the Markets. On Wednesday, we will host conference calls with financial professionals to...
Tariffs and Inflation
Investors this week will be focused on the implications of the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. While this is clearly a very significant eve...
Economic Sogginess and the Market Party
When we bought our first home, the builder neglected to mention that it was built upon a river. Of course a river at the bottom of a garden is a charm...
The Macro Jigsaw
When I was growing up, school holidays weren’t packed with organized activities. Sometimes, to relieve the boredom of a rainy day, I would tackle a ji...
Policy and the Investment Landscape: An Update
This week, after a very busy few months, I am putting down my pen, picking up my metaphorical spade and bucket and taking some vacation time. 2025, so...
A Softer Sort of Slowdown
There have only been two U.S. recessions since 2001 – the Great Financial Crisis and the Pandemic Recession. Both of these were huge – accounting for...
Tracking the Economic Slowdown
A crowd is gathered around the sickbed of the economic expansion. Among the multitude are the workers, consumers and business people who would be most...
Recession Risks, Resilience and American Exceptionalism
Last weekend, I neglected to finish my Notes on the Week Ahead as I got caught up in watching the Masters. In truth, it was mostly a battle between Ro...
Tariff Turmoil and Investment Strategy
One clear advantage of getting older, (and I can attest to many of its disadvantages), is that you learn from experience. The financial market chaos,...
Fiscal Fudge
I may have mentioned this before, but as a young lad, I had a very healthy appetite. Consequently, when deciding on a hobby, I prudently elected to go...
The Wait and See Economy
I was running along the roads of our neighborhood last weekend when I came upon a small herd of deer. I often see these beautiful but dopey creatures...
The Trouble with Tariffs
I was at a conference last week and a financial advisor asked me what I thought he should say when a client asked him what was so bad about tariffs.
The Implications of Slowing Population Growth
In December, the Census Bureau announced that the U.S. population had grown by nearly 1% in the year ended July 1st, 2024, marking the strongest annua...
The Growth Drag from Policy Uncertainty
In the four weeks since he took office, the president has issued an extraordinary number of executive orders, while promising dramatic change across t...
Europe: The Slow and Steady Train
For investors, Europe seems like a train in a station, perpetually gathering steam and loading up for a long-delayed journey, but clearly advertising...
The Investment Implications of the Trade War
On Saturday, the White House announced the imposition of heavy tariffs on goods exported from Mexico, Canada and China and all three nations announced...
White House Actions, Fed Reactions and Investing
This Wednesday, at 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve will release a statement on monetary policy. It will, as usual, be a brief and colorless document and...
The Big Picture on Debt, Deficits and Interest Rates
“Unsustainable!”
To quote Inigo Montoya: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means”
For decades, journali...
Interest Rates, Inflation and the Uncertainty Tax
In football, it’s always better, at the snap of the ball to disguise your intentions. Are you going to pass or run the ball? Is it a zone defense or m...
Stability and Extremes
Over the holiday season, we got to spend some time with our very charming granddaughter and, as a bonus, I am now fully re-acquainted with all the ver...
Reading Between the Lines (On the Direction of Monetary Policy)
When testifying to the Senate Banking Committee back in 1987, the newly-appointed Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan, provided some insight into his views o...
Initial Conditions
Many years ago, I worked for the Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis at the State of Michigan and, from time to time, Saul Hymans and his colleagues fr...
Irish Lessons
This week will be full of market-moving economic data. We expect purchasing manager surveys and light-vehicle sales to indicate steady demand in Novem...
Policy Changes and the Macro Outlook
I’ve been running my own econometric model of the U.S. economy for almost 30 years now. The basic structure is simple. You start by forecasting the co...
The Investment Implications of the Republican Sweep
The most urgent task facing investors in the wake of the 2024 elections is figuring out how much of the Trump agenda, as broadly outlined on the campa...
Finding Balance in a Broadening Expansion
The last few weeks have seen spectacular weather in New England, with warm temperatures and blue skies almost every day. By now, we would normally hav...
The Deficit, the Election and Interest Rates
Growing up in Dublin, I had a well-earned reputation as a child of very healthy appetite. At birthday parties, I’d always make sure, at the outset, to...